Unveiling the Hydrological Symphony: Analyzing Short, Intense Storms in the Face of Climatic Shifts
Unveiling the Hydrological Symphony: Analyzing Short, Intense Storms in
the Face of Climatic Shifts
Hello, I’m Dor, holding a B.Sc in Water Engineering. I’d like to share a segment of my final project, where I endeavored to predict the likelihood of intense storms. The data I gathered revealed some intriguing findings.
For my final project,
I utilized the Python programming language to extract rainfall data obtained
from the Israeli Meteorological Services API. Throughout Israel, various gauges
are strategically placed, and I specifically focused on data from digital gauges, with up to 30 years of rainfall measurements on some of the gauges.
Allow me to present a
noteworthy observation from the Tel Aviv Coast gauge data and delve into the
statistical analysis derived from the information I collected. I’ll also
discuss the connections between these findings and climate change.
In Figure 1, the
Y-axis represents rain intensity [mm/hr] during a 10-minute storm event, while
the X-axis denotes the annual probability of the same event — keep in mind that
these events are given a fresh opportunity to occur each year. must mention that if a 1% probability of rain even occurs this year, it doesn't cancel that the same event or higher will occur the year after. The data spans from
2005 to 2022 and is arranged from the highest to lowest intensity. Notably,
the last five instances of the highest rainfall events transpired within the
last five years (2017 to 2022). This raises concerns about what the future may hold in terms
of hydrological flood events.
Upon conducting
statistical tests, it becomes evident that the most fitting correlation for
this dataset is the “exponential distribution,” suggesting the possibility of
more alarming events than those predicted by alternative distribution tests
(see Figure 2).
Figure 3 illustrates
additional distribution tests, each exhibiting lower fitting factors.
Figure 2: Kolmogorov-Smirnov = 0.446, Chi-Test = 12.824
Figure 3: other distribution fitting for the same collected normalized
data
As we delve into the
intricate patterns of hydrological events, it’s impossible to ignore the
broader context of our changing climate. The rising average temperatures,
evident in recent years, play a crucial role in shaping the dynamics of our
hydrological systems. The correlation between the data presented here,
showcasing short but intense storms with high precipitation rates, and the
escalating temperatures is a stark reminder of the intricate dance between
atmospheric conditions and hydrological responses.
The warming trend
observed in our climate amplifies the risk of extreme weather events,
exemplified by the surge in high-intensity rainfall occurrences. This calls for
a heightened awareness of the potential consequences that await us in the
future. As we navigate these challenges, understanding the interconnectedness
of rising temperatures, shifting weather patterns, and hydrological events
becomes paramount.
In essence, the data
serves not only as a record of the past but as a compass guiding us toward
informed decisions for a more resilient future. By acknowledging the
correlation between increasing temperatures and the intensity of hydrological
events, we pave the way for proactive measures and sustainable practices. It is
our collective responsibility to address the implications of climate change and
strive for a harmonious coexistence with our ever-evolving environment.
Thank you very much,
Dor Gez.
E-mail: DorHydro@gmail.com
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